Title
A technology development framework for scenario planning and futures studies using causal modeling
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
8-3-2022
DOI
10.1080/09537325.2021.1931672
Abstract
Planning for the future plays a pivotal role in a competitive business world. Scenario analysis is a popular tool for exploring plausible futures and planning. However, the practice of scenario planning is often qualitative, unstructured, and time-consuming. We propose a structured technology development framework by categorising the qualitative variables impacting technology development and identifying their causal relationships. We then use causal loops and expert opinions and the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method for scenario planning and futures studies. We present a case study in the communications industry to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework.
Language
English
Recommended Citation
Tavana, Madjid; Ghasrikhouzani, Mohsen; and Abtahi, Amir-Reza, "A technology development framework for scenario planning and futures studies using causal modeling" (2022). Business Systems and Analytics Faculty Work. 18.
https://digitalcommons.lasalle.edu/bsa_faculty/18
Comments
Tavana, M., Ghasrikhouzani, M. and Abtahi, A.R. (2022) ‘A Technology Development Framework for Scenario Planning and Futures Studies Using Causal Modeling,’ Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, Vol. 34, No. 8, pp. 859-875.